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Handicapping DSP 2009

RANDOM MUSINGS on the fin-de-millénaire games scene . . .

18 August 2009 . . .

Time was not available last year to try it, but let's see if it's possible this year to predict the results of the popularly-voted Deutscher Spiele Preis (German Game Award). To begin, let's grab the 50 top-ranked games from the voting on boardgamegeek.com:

1. Dominion
2. Pandemic
3. Small World
4. Battlestar Galactica
5. Le Havre
6. Conflict of Heroes: Awakening the Bear! - Russia 1941-1942
7. Stone Age
8. Dominion: Intrigue
9. Space Alert
10. Steam
11. Axis & Allies Anniversary Edition
12. Race for the Galaxy: The Gathering Storm
13. Descent: The Road to Legend
14. Age of Conan: The Strategy Board Game
15. Race for the Galaxy: Rebel vs Imperium
16. A Touch of Evil, The Supernatural Game
17. Tales of the Arabian Nights
18. Ghost Stories
19. Android
20. Chicago Express
21. World of Warcraft: the Adventure Game
22. Galactic Emperor
23. Keltis
24. Arkham Horror - Kingsport Horror Expansion
25. Blackbeard
26. Automobile
27. The Devil's Cauldron: The Battles for Arnhem and Nijmegen
28. Cosmic Encounter
29. Arkham Horror - Innsmouth Horror Expansion
30. Red November
31. Fields of Fire
32. Tomb
33. Formula D
34. Manoeuvre
35. Risk: Black Ops
36. Monsterpocalypse
37. EVE: Conquests
38. Warriors of God
39. Snow Tails
40. Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age
41. Wasabi!
42. Last Night On Earth: Growing Hunger
43. Waterloo
44. Metropolys
45. Arkham Horror - The Black Goat of the Woods Expansion
46. A Castle for All Seasons
47. A Most Dangerous Time: Japan in Chaos, 1570-1584
48. Tide of Iron: Days of the Fox
49. Combat Commander: Pacific
50. Descent: The Tomb of Ice
First let's remove all of the expansion kits since the will not be considered. Let's also remove all of the pure war games which also not be considered. Then, remove all of the games which have not been published in Europe. And remove games which are reprints from years gone by and now making a return visit. Finally, remove the games that appeared early enough in 2008 so that they were considered for last year's award. They will not be considered again. This deletes the following:
1. Dominion
2. Pandemic
3. Small World
4. Battlestar Galactica
5. Le Havre
6. Conflict of Heroes: Awakening the Bear! - Russia 1941-1942
7. Stone Age
8. Dominion: Intrigue
9. Space Alert
10. Steam
11. Axis & Allies Anniversary Edition
12. Race for the Galaxy: The Gathering Storm
13. Descent: The Road to Legend
14. Age of Conan: The Strategy Board Game
15. Race for the Galaxy: Rebel vs Imperium
16. A Touch of Evil, The Supernatural Game
17. Tales of the Arabian Nights
18. Ghost Stories
19. Android
20. Chicago Express
21. World of Warcraft: the Adventure Game
22. Galactic Emperor
23. Keltis
24. Arkham Horror - Kingsport Horror Expansion
25. Blackbeard
26. Automobile
27. The Devil's Cauldron: The Battles for Arnhem and Nijmegen
28. Cosmic Encounter
29. Arkham Horror - Innsmouth Horror Expansion
30. Red November
31. Fields of Fire
32. Tomb
33. Formula D
34. Manoeuvre
35. Risk: Black Ops
36. Monsterpocalypse
37. EVE: Conquests
38. Warriors of God
39. Snow Tails
40. Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age
41. Wasabi!
42. Last Night On Earth: Growing Hunger
43. Waterloo
44. Metropolys
45. Arkham Horror - The Black Goat of the Woods Expansion
46. A Castle for All Seasons
47. A Most Dangerous Time: Japan in Chaos, 1570-1584
48. Tide of Iron: Days of the Fox
49. Combat Commander: Pacific
50. Descent: The Tomb of Ice
Notice that Small World, something of a war game is still included. This is because its predecessor, Vinci, ran third in the 2000 voting. Perhaps it should be eliminated for this reason as a reprint, but it seems enough has changed that maybe it will yet get some votes.

Also still included is Dominion: Intrigue, which some consider a mere expansion of Dominion. The thing is that not everyone does. In addition, with both it and the original game in the vote at the same time, perhaps both will receive votes.

This leaves just twenty games, now listed with their German publishers:

1. Dominion (Hans-im-Glück)
2. Pandemic (Pegasus)
3. Small World (Days of Wonder)
4. Battlestar Galactica (Heidelberger Spielverlag)
5. Le Havre (Lookout Games)
8. Dominion: Intrigue (Hans-im-Glück)
9. Space Alert (Heidelberger Spielverlag)
10. Steam (Phalanx Deutschland)
13. Descent: The Road to Legend (Heidelberger Spielverlag)
18. Ghost Stories [none]
19. Android (Heidelberger Spielverlag)
20. Chicago Express (Queen)
26. Automobile (Phalanx Deutschland)
30. Red November (Heidelberger Spielverlag)
39. Snow Tails [none]
40. Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age (Pegasus)
41. Wasabi! [none]
42. Last Night On Earth: Growing Hunger [none]
46. A Castle for All Seasons (eggertspiele)
Now we can begin applying the rules ascertained from the analysis of the 2007 DSP.

Rule 1: Being in the German Distribution System Is Important.
Games not having a German publisher do not enter the German distribution system. Not being available in German shops limits the number who will buy the game which further limits the number who will play it. As the majority of the voters are German, this causes these games to falter in the rankings. How much they will falter is uncertain, but let's assume they will fall all the way to the bottom, as is reflected below.

1. Dominion
2. Pandemic
3. Small World
4. Battlestar Galactica
5. Le Havre
8. Dominion: Intrigue
9. Space Alert
10. Steam
13. Descent: The Road to Legend
19. Android
20. Chicago Express
26. Automobile
30. Red November
40. Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age
46. A Castle for All Seasons
18. Ghost Stories
39. Snow Tails
41. Wasabi!
42. Last Night On Earth: Growing Hunger
Rule 2: Don't be a remake.
Now it's time to consider re-makes, which have typically not done well. Here it's hard to say what will happen with two titles, Dominion: Intrigue and Steam. The latter, the latest iteration of Age of Steam, will most probably be considered only a re-make. Drop it to just above the games without German publishers. The former is very difficult to predict. On the one hand it is just Dominion redone, but on the other, it's more of a gamer's game than the original is. Could some voters try to express their hardcore gaming natures by voting this as their number one game of the year? Or will they do the proper Teutonic thing and vote for the original only? Let's go out on a limb and guess that the latter thinking will prevail. This gives the new list:
1. Dominion
2. Pandemic
3. Small World
4. Battlestar Galactica
5. Le Havre
9. Space Alert
13. Descent: The Road to Legend
19. Android
20. Chicago Express
26. Automobile
30. Red November
40. Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age
46. A Castle for All Seasons
8. Dominion: Intrigue
10. Steam
18. Ghost Stories
39. Snow Tails
41. Wasabi!
42. Last Night On Earth: Growing Hunger
Rule 3: Don't be too much about conflict.
Games which are too combative often fail to do well with DSP. It is not fatal: the third place finish for Vinci has already been mentioned, but it does seem to hurt. This was the case in 2007, for example, with Battlelore and Shogun. For this reason, drop Small World and Descent by three ranks, which is only a guess. Perhaps it should be more.
1. Dominion
2. Pandemic
4. Battlestar Galactica
5. Le Havre
9. Space Alert
3. Small World
19. Android
20. Chicago Express
26. Automobile
13. Descent: The Road to Legend
30. Red November
40. Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age
46. A Castle for All Seasons
8. Dominion: Intrigue
10. Steam
18. Ghost Stories
39. Snow Tails
41. Wasabi!
42. Last Night On Earth: Growing Hunger
Rule 4: Don't look too inconsequential.
Games which are considered too small, "only" card games or only for two players also tend to get penalized in DSP voting. In the past two examples have been Mr. Jack and Caylus Magna Carta. It's small wonder that the card game St. Petersburg and now Dominion have appeared in large packages. Anyway, for this reason, drop Red November and Roll Through the Ages by two places.
1. Dominion
2. Pandemic
4. Battlestar Galactica
5. Le Havre
9. Space Alert
3. Small World
19. Android
20. Chicago Express
26. Automobile
13. Descent: The Road to Legend
46. A Castle for All Seasons
30. Red November
40. Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age
8. Dominion: Intrigue
10. Steam
18. Ghost Stories
39. Snow Tails
41. Wasabi!
42. Last Night On Earth: Growing Hunger
Rule 5: But don't be too heavy either.
DSP voters also tend not to like a game that's too heavy. For example this hurt Imperial in the past. If there is extensive use of text and especially if that text has not been translated into German, it's even worse. For such reasons, Battlestar Galactica and Android will probably drop a bit in the results.
1. Dominion
2. Pandemic
5. Le Havre
9. Space Alert
3. Small World
20. Chicago Express
4. Battlestar Galactica
26. Automobile
13. Descent: The Road to Legend
19. Android
46. A Castle for All Seasons
30. Red November
40. Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age
8. Dominion: Intrigue
10. Steam
18. Ghost Stories
39. Snow Tails
41. Wasabi!
42. Last Night On Earth: Growing Hunger
Rule 6: Don't be forgettable.
Games which appear shortly after the previous year's award, i.e. even before the Essen Fair in October have a tendency to be forgotten. This isn't fatal, though. It can be addressed by bringing out a popular expansion to refresh the voters' memories and get the game back onto the table. Dominion: Intrigue has done this for Dominion (if it even needs it). This appears to not be a problem for any of the games still remaining in this year's list, so this year this rule does not change list.

Rule 7: Winning the Spiel des Jahres is tricky.
If the winner of the jury-awarded prize is at all considered not truly a game for gamers, there can be deliberate voting against it. The DSP voters often like to assert their intelligence over that of the jury. On the other hand, if the jury brought awareness to an obscure game, that can help it to get on more tables and find more fans, as was probably the case for Zooloretto in 2007. In this year, Dominion is very much considered a gamer's game so it will probably not be hurt at all, unless, as suggested above, there is a snarky desire to vote for Dominion: Intrigue. The list is not changed by this rule either.

Rule 8: Don't just be good, but look good.
In Germany there is a strong feeling that an award winner should not only play well, but look good. In 2007 Pillars of the Earth and Notre Dame were considered to have excelled in that regard. Games which qualify in this regard can jump up a step.

1. Dominion
5. Le Havre
2. Pandemic
9. Space Alert
3. Small World
20. Chicago Express
4. Battlestar Galactica
26. Automobile
19. Android
13. Descent: The Road to Legend
46. A Castle for All Seasons
30. Red November
8. Dominion: Intrigue
40. Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age
10. Steam
18. Ghost Stories
39. Snow Tails
41. Wasabi!
42. Last Night On Earth: Growing Hunger
Rule 9: Innovate.
A winner should bring something entirely new. Games which do not may be penalized a bit. This will probably affect: Small World, Chicago Express, Descent: The Road to Legend, Red November, Steam.
1. Dominion
5. Le Havre
2. Pandemic
9. Space Alert
4. Battlestar Galactica
3. Small World
20. Chicago Express
26. Automobile
46. A Castle for All Seasons
19. Android
13. Descent: The Road to Legend
8. Dominion: Intrigue
30. Red November
40. Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age
18. Ghost Stories
10. Steam
39. Snow Tails
41. Wasabi!
42. Last Night On Earth: Growing Hunger
Rule 9: Match your theme.
In 2007 Vikings was probably hurt as it had the interesting wheel innovation, but game play reminded less of the pillaging of the fearsome sea warriors than of drafting the Minnesota variety. This may not hurt any of the games remaining in the list this year.

Rule 10: Keep luck to a minimum.
In 2007 having luck play too large a role in play probably hurt Thebes. This may well affect Android in this year's balloting.

And finally we have it: the predicted 2009 top ten DSP finishers.

1. Dominion (was 1)
2. Le Havre (was 5)
3. Pandemic (was 2)
4. Space Alert (was 9)
5. Battlestar Galactica (was 4)
6. Small World (was 3)
7. Chicago Express (was 20)
8. Automobile (was 26)
9. A Castle for All Seasons (was 46)
10. Descent: The Road to Legend (was 13)
Maybe it's totally wrong, but after the awards have been announced I'll report on how it all came out.

   

by Rick Heli